What is an Effective Compute Hour (ECH)?

An ECH is a standardized unit of AI compute, benchmarked against MLPerf scores. One ECH represents the computational capacity of a reference system (8x H100 SXM GPUs) for one hour, normalized by performance. It serves as the barrel or bushel equivalent for compute commodity markets.

Why do AI compute markets need futures contracts?

Collected public cloud-pricing observations show variation across providers, regions, configurations, and commercial terms. This research asks whether an independently governed benchmark could improve comparison and support voluntary risk-management tools.

How does compute futures pricing compare to oil or electricity markets?

Oil and electricity markets illustrate how location and delivery terms can affect pricing. The compute data on this site are exploratory observations rather than a claim that the markets are directly comparable.

What is TP$W (Tokens per Dollar per Watt)?

TP$W is the north-star efficiency metric combining cost, energy, and capability: Tokens per Dollar per Watt. It aligns provider incentives (lower costs), buyer incentives (cheaper inference), and public goals (lower energy intensity per useful output).

What are GreenCAC and OpenCAC overlays?

GreenCAC certifies compute hours with low carbon footprint via third-party audits of renewable energy usage and PUE metrics. OpenCAC subsidizes compute for research committed to open-source outputs. Both are market-based overlays that embed social values into pricing without distorting core price signals.

Paper Versions

Research drafts for the compute futures proposal. All contract terms are illustrative. This is a research project, not an operating exchange or investment advice.

Draft 5November 16, 2025Current

Standardizing Compute for Futures Markets

Current version. Proposes a performance-anchored ECH unit, an IOSCO-style hub index, and a regulatory pathway from bilateral NDFs to listed, cleared futures.

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v1October 12, 2025

Compute Futures Whitepaper

Original whitepaper. Initial proposal for standardized compute markets.

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Note: Drafts 1–4 are not archived in this repository. The versioning reflects the author's internal draft history.

Stable Download URLs

Latest:/compute-futures-whitepaper.pdf

Draft 5:/papers/compute-futures-proposal-2025-11-17-draft5.pdf

v1:/papers/compute-futures-whitepaper-2025-10-13-v1.pdf